October 3, 2008
Bailout and the Biz
In light of the recent economic troubles plaguing the U.S. economy, it might be interesting to hear opinions about how this recession (and it has been a recession for quite some time, whether labeled so or not) will affect the writing/publishing/bookselling fields as everyone tries to tread water…
WRITING and PUBLISHING
Is it likely there may be fewer new authors “discovered”, as publishers may stick with the tried and true, or their already proven authors, rather than wasting time with unknowns?
Or are publishers likely to back away from big-name authors with huge advances, etc., and become more conservative with not only how much they’re releasing, but how much they’re willing to pay?
Are the current economic problems likely to cause a surge in e-publishing, possibly to cut back on the cost of print?
Do you see this changing certain current trends in publishing? YA is popular at the moment, but if money is tight, are young people more likely to spend it on books, or movies, music, or video games? And does it portend a rise in Mad Max-type stories, government conspiracies, or the ever-popular billionaire-takes-poverty-stricken-lover type fantasy?
BOOKSELLERS
Do you see bookstores raising their prices?
Fewer indie bookstores?
On-line bookstores possibly charging so much per chapter, with their customers willing to pay for only as much as they can afford at one time?
Fewer hardcover books being offered?
Comfort reads becoming more popular?
Thoughts on any or all of the above?
Lots of interesting thoughts there, Raine. I hope it goes the way of new authors for the sake of those like you and me but that would mean a change of direction and change is hard in well-established organizations.
Epubbing had better branch out and embrace all genres if they are to become a serious player in the publishing world and I hope that happens but who will be the first to make the move?
Even though erotica/erotic romance probably still sells best in e-publishing, I’d say it’s pretty well branched.
Logic dictates that publishers would go with cheaper unknowns however it could be they go with the sure thing (in terms of sales). It might cost them 10mil for the next three Nora Roberts books (and I”m just pulling figures out of my a$$ bec. I have no idea how much Nora gets paid) but they pretty much know how much she’s going to sell based on her track record.
Then again, I’ve also heard they don’t really make a lot of money on big sellers so who knows.
Maybe smaller advances for unknowns? Maybe less willingness to negotiate for even moderate advances?
In terms of what’s selling, logic again dictates that readers will want escapist fantasy–ie more historicals, & maybe romantic comedy.
As daunting as it is to think that it might be years before I land another contract, I’m also taking this as an opportunity to relax and explore other genres. If they don’t sell now, like Jordan said a week or so ago, when the economy changes, I’ll have a stockpile
My crystal ball is broken, but historically entertainment does okay in tough times because people need it. I’d think that’d be even more true of romantic erotica, honestly. Talk about a feel-good read. We shall see. I intend to keep writing and see what happens.
Charlene I’ve always said people will find a way to buy books/rent movies even if it means buying ground beef instead of ground sirloin!
if it means buying ground beef instead of ground sirloin
or lots and lots of mac-n-cheese! (can feed the whole family for $3 for a double-box of shells and cheese … girl’s gotta get a haircut, y’know
)
as a consumer, when times get tight, I can always stick a paperback in my shopping cart and buy three generics of whatever to cover the cost–and when times get tight, I almost NEED to get that book as an “I’m still okay” kinda thought… does that makes sense?
–this still applies)
(having said that… I have a TBR in the double or triple 100s so I am actually good for a LONG while… but normal people–of which I am not
…oh and as an author… no freaking clue as to anything else
>>I almost NEED to get that book as an “I’m still okay” kinda thought…
I think this makes great good sense!
Do you see bookstores raising their prices?
No, because they do have stiff competition from e-books, and the improved readers like Kindle
Fewer indie bookstores?
Any indies who don’t watch their expense sheet will be really stressed to stay in business.
On-line bookstores possibly charging so much per chapter, with their customers willing to pay for only as much as they can afford at one time?
Innovative idea.
Fewer hardcover books being offered?
Smaller print runs for sure.
Comfort reads becoming more popular?
I don’t think I read anything else. :)
Epubbing had better branch out and embrace all genres if they are to become a serious player in the publishing world and I hope that happens but who will be the first to make the move?
I tend to agree with that, Suzanne. But honestly–the e-pubs I know who’ve tried to sell other genres (mystery, sci-fi, etc.) have said they simply didn’t take off.
Guess the readership will have to come around.
Maybe smaller advances for unknowns? Maybe less willingness to negotiate for even moderate advances?
Sigh…
As daunting as it is to think that it might be years before I land another contract, I’m also taking this as an opportunity to relax and explore other genres. If they don’t sell now, like Jordan said a week or so ago, when the economy changes, I’ll have a stockpile
That’s a great attitude, Ames.
Let’s hope the turnaround doesn’t take long–for everyone’s sake!
…but historically entertainment does okay in tough times because people need it. I’d think that’d be even more true of romantic erotica, honestly.
I’d think you’re probably right, Charli (even though that entertainment might need to take a cheaper form sometimes).
And it’s hard to imagine romance and hot sex not being a welcome diversion during the rough times.
I’ve always said people will find a way to buy books/rent movies even if it means buying ground beef instead of ground sirloin!
What’s ground sirloin?
…and when times get tight, I almost NEED to get that book as an “I’m still okay” kinda thought… does that makes sense?
Yes, and spot-on. It’s a (relatively) inexpensive way to feel comforted and sort of grounded. I know I often pull out an old fave if I’m feeling particularly down.
(having said that… I have a TBR in the double or triple 100s so I am actually good for a LONG while…
Ok, now THIS is the part that doesn’t make sense…LMAO!!
Any indies who don’t watch their expense sheet will be really stressed to stay in business.
And that would be SO sad. I’ve seen so many of them fold already.
On-line bookstores possibly charging so much per chapter, with their customers willing to pay for only as much as they can afford at one time?
Innovative idea.
I may start my own business with it, Bernard.
Fewer hardcover books being offered?
Smaller print runs for sure.
Good point, Bernard. I hadn’t thought of the print runs. Ugh.
>>Ok, now THIS is the part that doesn’t make sense
Consider the source?
I think people will definitely opt for cheaper entertainment. Why not stay home and watch that old fave on cable vs going out and blowing the phone bill on one night out. There are lots of things we do that we don’t have to. And I’m just as guilty as the rest. Taht said, it’s a LOT easier to throw a book in my basket in the grocery store, include it with the check i write for food rather than hit the bookstore (except amazon which is just plain evol! LOL)
But you know, lately I almost feel like I have to justify spending money on books to myself. I try using the excuse that it’s a necessity for pursuing my career, keeping up on what’s being read—but I’ll generally still cut a corner somewhere else because of it.
And yes, Amazon is evol, lol!
Such temptation…
So far, it seems to be a case of publishers sticking with proven names. If you look at the upcoming romance releases on Barnes and Noble, you’ll see that a disproportionate amount are ‘reprints/reissues’ of NYT best-selling authors. Things have slowed down dramatically in publishing. Houses are not buying near the amount of books they were six months ago. Most of the deals you see listed started being negotiated back in April and May of this year. There haven’t been a lot of ‘new’ purchases.
I do think this will cause more publishers to explore the ebook arena.
It’s already creating the types of stories you mentioned. Also, print runs are being slashed by HUGE numbers. People who would’ve received a print run of 70/80K are now getting a print run of 30/40, depending on their sales history. Along with the print runs, the advances are dropping. All ways to save money.
At the same time, I totally agree with this mindset: …and when times get tight, I almost NEED to get that book as an “I’m still okay” kinda thought… does that makes sense?
People will do that sort of thing to keep themselves sane. :)
>>you’ll see that a disproportionate amount are ‘reprints/reissues’ of NYT best-selling authors.
Jordan how much of that do you think was slotted a year or more ago though?
And it seems most of what I’ve seen listed on PM lately has been non-fiction!
Man i wish I paid closer attention to my daily digests (half the time I just skim) but a couple of months ago, on one of my yahoo loops there was a discussion about an established midlister who wasn’t able to sell her most recent completed MS to her regular pub so had to go with a new pub, but here’s the kicker, the whole advance would be paid upon publication. Nope, we’re not talking epub here. We can only hope she didn’t get shafted with that basket accounting thing, where the author gets nothing till the book earns out.
‘K, don’t quote me on any of that! lol. Like i said, I only vaguely remember.
But still, I can see the squeeze being put on advances, or more creative approaches to paying them out by pubs for all authors (new and established).
I want to say, yeah it will be harder, but by gum how much harder could it be?! *g* A good book will always be bought. But maybe it’ll only be the established authors who get the multiple-books contract?
As for book store, historically, they always go the fire sale route. Buy 2, get the 3rd for free. Or 10% off, with an extra 10% for members, etc.
Good topic, Raine!
That should be *harder* to sell for the newbie.
Also, I’ve been making using the library more and more lately. It’s not just a *spending money* issue, as much as a *wasted money issue. I’m not finding as much keepers as I used to, and the UBS won’t pay me as much for the ones I bring in, so I’ve cut back on buying as much in the frist place.
Consider the source?
LOL… er ah… hey!
Ok, now THIS is the part that doesn’t make sense
I have been to five conferences in the last seven years and have gotten uber-amounts of books… and yes, I read every single one! (I have ALL the ones form 2002 and 2004… working my way through the new ones slowly but surely!) you never know when you’ll find a fave from someoen you wouldn’t normally read…
Yes, the economy is taking a hit, which is why the bailout pissed me off. It only becomes a crisis when the rich are loosing millions of dollars a day.
But really don’t get me started.
As for what is publishing going to do? I can say. What have they done before when times got tight. The publishing biz is pretty predictable when it comes in terms of the bottom line. They run for it. Now if Nora Roberts is the bottom line and a unknown author isn’t then that how they’ll swing.
Now if that doesn’t depress the crap out of any budding writer I don’t know what will.
But when have we ever listened to reason? We write books for goodness sakes.
If you look at the upcoming romance releases on Barnes and Noble, you’ll see that a disproportionate amount are ‘reprints/reissues’ of NYT best-selling authors. Things have slowed down dramatically in publishing. Houses are not buying near the amount of books they were six months ago. Most of the deals you see listed started being negotiated back in April and May of this year. There haven’t been a lot of ‘new’ purchases.
*Sob!*
It’s already creating the types of stories you mentioned. Also, print runs are being slashed by HUGE numbers. People who would’ve received a print run of 70/80K are now getting a print run of 30/40, depending on their sales history. Along with the print runs, the advances are dropping. All ways to save money.
I swear the hair on the back of my neck just stood up…
Thanks for the hard-core information, Jordan. It doesn’t sound good, but it’s good to know.
And it seems most of what I’ve seen listed on PM lately has been non-fiction!
Now that surprises me. It would seem like escapism would be the order of the day…
We can only hope she didn’t get shafted with that basket accounting thing, where the author gets nothing till the book earns out.
Just what we all dream about while we sit in our cramped little lofts, typing our hearts out.
I want to say, yeah it will be harder, but by gum how much harder could it be?
Vanessa.
Vanessa.
Don’t ever, EVER say that, lol!
It’s not just a *spending money* issue, as much as a *wasted money issue. I’m not finding as much keepers as I used to, and the UBS won’t pay me as much for the ones I bring in, so I’ve cut back on buying as much in the frist place.
Good idea with the library approach, Vanessa, as long as you can find what you want there (the ones in my area tend to be very…conservative).
And yes, that’s another thing! Last time I took books back to the UBS, I came right back home with them. I’d rather pass them on to friends than settle for the few pennies they offered.
I have been to five conferences in the last seven years and have gotten uber-amounts of books…
I’m just messin’ with ya, Dennie.
I envy you your stash.
But really don’t get me started.
You are not alone, Mel.
The publishing biz is pretty predictable when it comes in terms of the bottom line. They run for it. Now if Nora Roberts is the bottom line and a unknown author isn’t then that how they’ll swing.
Now if that doesn’t depress the crap out of any budding writer I don’t know what will.
It certainly does sound depressing, doesn’t it?
Maybe we’ll have to be more realistic in our expectations, as I’m sure the publishers will be.
But I’d be willing to bet that an author or two will find something about all this that actually helps their career somehow–griffin from the ashes, so to speak.
>>I’d rather pass them on to friends
I’d rather donate them to charity and take the tax writeoff
Denise, however, is a hoarder. I used to be but I’m in recover
And the older I get, the less I can abide the clutter and nastyness my house always evolves into
>>basket accounting thing, where the author gets nothing till the book earns out.
PS Basket accting only comes into play on a multiple book deal
Some perspective from an old grumpy writer who has been around for a while:
Ten years ago the Asian currencies and financial markets collapsed; the International Monetary Fund had to bail out Indonesia to the tune of $43 billion dollars. At the time Microsoft was hit hard; it cost them somewhere around $300 million in lost revenue. Then there was all the economic fallout from El Niño.
At the same time writers weren’t selling, and there were a lot of romance reprints hitting the shelves. Newly published authors were worried about them and what they might do to the slots available for their first/second/third novels. All that was the topic of discussion at one of the first RWA meetings I ever attended.
Eight years ago there was Y2K, and the entire world’s data systems were supposed to collapse. The dot com failures began to snowball. The U.S. spent over 100 billion dealing with natural and economic disasters. Remember all the floods? Then there were these new-fangled e-books that were definitely going to kill print novels, drag romance down into the mud, turn publishing over to the barbarians at the gate, etc. Everyone was convinced of it, talking about it, and worried. Everyone hated the first wave of e-book authors. PAN became a battleground. I couldn’t understand the panic or the attitudes, but if the angriest of the print authors could have tarred and feathered the most definat of the e-book authors at RWA Nat’l, they would have. (That was when I decided to quit RWA.)
In 2005 we were taking up sides over in-house and quite vicious attempts at writer censorship and the whole RWA graphical standards debacle. Hurricane Katrina then arrived and destroyed lives, homes and hope, but also managed to put an end to the bickering. I was too busy packing up boxes of books and writer supplies and writing letters to pay much attention to the rumors running around then, but I’m sure there were plenty.
I’m not trying to downplay the gravity of the current economic situation, but I really think we will survive it. If for no other reason than we’ve survived everything else. You don’t have to agree with me, but I don’t think it’s something to brood over too much.
As for the reprints, I admit, I like seeing some of the old OOP Loveswepts being repackaged; some of those were great reads. Now if they’d just do the same for the best of Silhouette Shadows. My original Rebecca Flanders editions are getting a bit long in the tooth.)
Basket accting only comes into play on a multiple book deal
Ohhh, I didn’t know that.
I’m not trying to downplay the gravity of the current economic situation, but I really think we will survive it. If for no other reason than we’ve survived everything else.
Well, from what you’ve listed here, I’ll have to agree. Yes, we have.
I can only hope editors and agents see it the same way, and that the economic situation improves soon. A few reprints here and there are cool—there are a few I’d like to see too, lol—but I’d hate to see the industry go into duck-and-cover mode.
Many thanks, grumpy writer.